Alternative Futures and Their Implications for Army by Brian Nichiporuk, John Gordon

By Brian Nichiporuk, John Gordon

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SOF has been dramatically increased over today’s levels. R ARROYO CENTER The conventional combat component of this Army is significantly smaller than today’s force. The post–Army XXI elements are represented by the Interim units. A very small Army XXI heavy component is retained as a hedge; most heavy capability would reside in the Reserve Components in this future. Although the details are not apparent on this chart, we envisioned that a very significant increase in special operations forces would be required in this future.

Due to the need for rapid-deployment capability and the requirement to combat capable units of the opposing coalitions, we envisioned a significant increase in Objective Force units. There would also be a need to make major increases in TMD, aviation (lift and attack), deep strike, and C4ISR capabilities. Increases in counter-WMD and CSS capabilities would also appear to be warranted in this situation. Certainly the opposing coalitions would have the option of employing WMD against the United States, and the need to operate in many different regions would require enhanced CSS capabilities in the active force.

32 Modernization Implications Major Competitor Overall impact on Army Mod Plan = Major (increase) Objective Interim Force Force Army XXI SOF WMD TMD Defense AVN Deep Strike CSS C4ISR Insights: • • • • • • Reappearance of major opponent Active Army is 10% larger than today Major increases in attack aviation, deep strike, and C4ISR Objective Force–type medium units stressed over Interim organizations TMD/WMD require increase compared to today’s plans Army XXI–type units used in areas conducive toprepositioning R ARROYO CENTER Major Competitor is a threatening future.

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