Business Forecasting, Second Edition A Practical Approach by A. Reza Hoshmand

By A. Reza Hoshmand

The info age has introduced higher interconnection internationally, and remodeled the worldwide market. to stay aggressive, company corporations search for methods of bettering their skill to gauge company and financial stipulations around the globe. while, advances in know-how have revolutionized the best way we technique info and get ready company and monetary forecasts. Secondary info searches, information assortment, facts access and research, graphical visualization, and reporting can all be comprehensive with assistance from desktops that supply entry to details no longer formerly on hand. Forecasters should still for this reason study the options and types concerned, as utilized during this new era.

Business Forecasting: a realistic Approach is meant as an utilized textual content for college students and practitioners of forecasting who've a few history in economics and records. The presentation is conceptual in nature with emphasis on cause, software, and interpretation of the main widespread forecasting techniques. The target of this booklet is to supply scholars and executives with an outline of a extensive variety of ideas and an figuring out of the strengths and weaknesses of every procedure. it really is in keeping with the belief that forecasting talents are top constructed and retained by way of beginning with uncomplicated types, through repeated publicity to genuine global examples. The e-book makes huge use of overseas examples to enlarge recommendations.

 

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Given the differences of opinion among economists as to whether macroeconomic models or the simple ARIMA models (discussed in Chapter 10) provide better forecasts, it is wise to assess the quality of a forecast through comparison of competing forecasts. When asked to provide a forecast of macroeconomic variables such as gross national product, price inflation over the next 3 or 4 years, or the interest rates, it is advisable to consult with one or more of the model-building groups that have established a track record over the years.

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1984) “Forecast evaluation and improvement using Theil’s decomposition,” Journal of Forecasting 3: 345–351. J. A. (1987) “A comparison of short term forecasting accuracy of econometric and naïve extrapolation models of market share,” International Journal of Forecasting 3: 423–437. D. (1977) “How to choose the right forecasting techniques,” Harvard Business Review 49(4): 45–74. T. B. (1989) “Econometric GNP forecasts: incremental information relative to naïve extrapolation,” International Journal of Forecasting 5: 417–426.

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